By Joy Vann
While the inventory of houses for sale in Hampton Roads is very low — with nearly 4,000 houses on the market — there are more than 9,000 real estate agents in the area vying for business. That’s according to Van Rose, principal owner of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices RW, Towne Realty, one of the five experts who presented at The Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast last Tuesday at Chartway Arena.
The event, a unique partnership between academia and the business community, marked its 30th anniversary with more than 550 industry professionals in attendance.
In his remarks, Rose noted he’d been present for every Real Estate Market Review & Forecast. In his inaugural report, he said, the average price of a house was $50,000. The average price of a house this past year was $391,477, a 6.5% increase since 2023. Another takeaway from Rose’s synopsis of the Hampton Roads real estate market is that, unlike what has been reported for the rest of the country, the news for Hampton Roads is not all doom and gloom.
“We have defense contracts; we have the Port Authority. We have an expanding, exploding medical and health care services. We have tourism, and we have unprecedented demand. So, we have these tugboats that are pulling this, even if you said it was a powerless ship of residential real estate, it is pulling it through the water with reasonable numbers,” he said.
Rose, who was awarded the Robert L. Stanton Legacy Award for his significant contributions to the real estate industry and the communities of Hampton Roads over the past 30 years at the end of the program, also discussed the uphill battle faced by first-time homebuyers because of the high prices of houses and high interest rates. He also covered the incredible growth of the Hampton Roads luxury market which saw a 231% increase in homes sold priced more than $1 million dollars since 2019.
Rose pointed out that from 2021 to 2023, interest rates rose from 2.5% to 8%, which is a primary reason that the 80% of current homeowners with interest rates below 5% aren’t moving, which further contributes to the low inventory.
30th Anniversary
Organized by the E.V. Williams Center for Real Estate in the Strome College of Business at Old Dominion University, the event brought industry leaders together to discuss the current trends and possible directions the commercial and residential real estate markets might make amid talk of tariffs, inflation and interest rates. It opened with a video of current and former experts who had been involved with the event over the years. They shared the collective message that the event was a vital part of the Hampton Roads market for the way it brings experienced professionals to parse the research and data and strengthen the decision-making ability of the dealmakers.
In her opening remarks, Erika Marsillac, dean of the Strome College of Business, said, “Over the past three decades, this event has been instrumental in enhancing understanding of our region's real estate landscape, offering invaluable insights and fostering collaboration amongst professionals at the Strome College of Business. We take immense pride in our Harvey Lindsay School of Real Estate and the E.V Williams Center for Real Estate. These institutions exemplify our dedication to academic excellence and community partnerships serving as vital resources for both students and industry professionals.”
For students, represented by Sophie Gregoriou, Jhimere Harper-Ruffin and Amanda Maupin, co-presidents of the Monarch Real Estate Club, the event provided insight into the business and the opportunity to network with industry professionals including investors, brokers, appraisers and lenders.
Simon Stevenson, the Robert M. Stanton Endowed Chair of Real Estate & Economic Development, said the event is a well-known happening throughout academic and industry circles, noting he first learned of it in 2002 when he was the director of a real estate center at University College Dublin. Stevenson, who is also the director of the E.V. Williams Center for Real Estate and the Harvey Lindsay School of Real Estate at ODU, said, “One of the big things that attracted me and made me want to move to ODU was this event … It is viewed very enviously by other real estate centers, because it manages to square that circle of getting the industry and academia to work effectively together.”
He hosted the event with Kristen Costa, executive vice president of corporate services and office leasing at Divaris Real Estate and chair of the E.V. Williams Center.
Other Takeaways
In addition to Rose, guest speakers included multi-family housing specialist Jake Marshall, chief operating officer of The Breeden Company; retail professional Doug Aronson, senior vice president and partner at S.L. Nusbaum Realty Co. and senior managing director of SLN Capital Markets; office space expert Nicole Campbell, vice president at Cushman & Wakefield | Thalhimer; and industrial real estate authority Geoff Poston, managing broker, senior vice president, Cushman & Wakefield | Thalhimer.
Aronson noted how fast everything was moving and five months ago now feels like five years ago. He discussed the store closures of the previous year, reported on the year’s biggest leases and sales and discussed the “wildcard” of how tariffs make predicting the future difficult.
“Higher tariffs will lead to higher inflation, and if that happens, I don't see the Fed really making rate cuts at all this year, unless we get some tax cuts to stimulate the economy,” he said. “But, if inflation is in check, then I think we might see another quarter, maybe a 50-basis point cut. Not maybe enough to start a construction boom, but enough to get investors capital off the side of this.”
Campbell discussed the Hampton Roads office market saying it is navigating its own balancing act, adapting to shifting workplace trends, economic uncertainty and the wildcards of executive orders.
She said, “While the rest of the country struggles with empty buildings and landlords are questioning their life choices, the Hampton Roads office market is quietly outperforming,” noting that overall the region has a 7.1% vacancy rate as opposed to the national average is 13.9%. This is because the area has not over-built and the economic base is rock solid with defense, the Port of Virginia and local government and healthcare driving demand. The third reason, she said, was the area’s adaptability.
“Office conversions, flexible leasing and smart redevelopment are keeping us ahead of the game,” she said.
In his discussion, Marshall explained the high demand for multi-family housing is based on the creation of 8.1 million new households started by millennials and Gen Z populations, the shortage of available units and the expense of home ownership.
In 2024, 3,000 new units hit the market and 2,000 more are currently under construction. He asked why more units were not under construction to meet the demand. The answer, he said, is land availability, storm water challenges, flooding issues and the high cost of construction. In closing, he said with the difficulty in development, he doesn’t foresee a robust number of new units coming to the market. Marshall said that, overall, he is bullish on the prospects for the Hampton Roads multifamily market.
Poston’s discussion of the industrial sector covered the impact of speculative development on vacancy rates and rent growth, the challenges facing the big box market and the impact of defense and manufacturing.
“Norfolk remains one of the tightest markets in the country, good for landlords and driving rent growth,” he said, adding that could change quickly.
He noted the port and the strength of the defense industry remain strong assets for Hampton Roads.
“The Port of Virginia, America's most modern gateway, posted another solid year, with 7.2% year over year,” he said, pointing to the completion of a two-way channel for ultra large container vessels which provides a competitive advantage over other ports by improving efficiency and reducing the time it takes ships to come in and out of the harbor. Defense, he said, was the second major industry driving the market and that it had a strong growth trajectory.
Simon Stevenson shakes hands with Van Rose after presenting him with the Robert L. Stanton Legacy Award at the Hampton Roads Real Estate and Market Review on March 11 at Chartway Arena. Chuck Thomas/ODU Photography